[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2023 Feb 10 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2023 Feb 10 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity continued at high levels due to several M-class flares. The most notable regions were 3213 (N30W34, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) and 3217 (S10E57, Dac/beta). Both regions were the source of M-class and C-class flares during the period. New Region 3221 (N14E63, Hax/alpha) was designated to another grouping near the W limb. There was little change to all the spot groups on the visible disk.

Type II (821 km/s) and IV radio sweeps were reported in association with the largest flare of the period, an M3 at 10/0303 UTC from Region 3213. A well pronounced wave signature was visible in SDO/AIA 193 imagery near this time as well. However, no CME was detected in coronagraph imagery with this event.

Additional activity included a filament eruption centered near S15W34. This event was visible in SDO/AIA 304 and H-alpha imagery beginning ~10/0730 UTC. Updated imagery is required to conduct any CME analysis.

Despite the flare activity, no Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate, with M-class flares expected and a slight chance of isolated X-class flares on 10-12 Feb due primarily to the flare potential of Regions 3213 and 3217.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,220 pfu at 09/1755 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to continue at high levels due to CH HSS effects on 10-12 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background on 10-12 Feb.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind conditions were indicative of continued CH HSS influences and possible transient influence between roughly 09/1700-10/0130 UTC. Total IMF strength was at 3-8 nT. The Bz component varied, with a few periods of prolonged southward deviation - a maximum south deviation reached -8 nT. Solar wind speed fluctuated between ~475-500 km/s. The phi angle shifted between sectors.

Forecast: CH HSS influences are anticipated to diminish late on 10 Feb and a return towards a more ambient, background-like environment is expected on 11-12 Feb.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming was observed in the 21-00 UTC synoptic period with ongoing CH HSS and possible transient influences. Otherwise, unsettled to active levels were reported.

Forecast: Active conditions are expected early on 10 Feb with ongoing enhancements in the solar wind with CH HSS activity. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 11 Feb and a return to primarily quiet levels is anticipated on 12 Feb.

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