[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2023 Feb 06 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2023 Feb 06 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low to low. X-ray background levels remain close to C-levels allowing for minor fluctuations to reach C-class. Slight growth was observed in Region 3211 (S17W50, Dao/beta). New Regions 3213 (N29E20, Bxo/beta), 3214 (N10E40, Cro/beta), 3215 (N21E64, Bxo/beta), and 3216 (N24E74, Hsx/alpha) were numbered. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class flares over 06-08 Feb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate over 06-08 Feb and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed increased from approximately 350 km/s to near 440 km/s. Total field increased from 6 nT to 13 nT before decreasing to near 7 nT. The Bz component was between +8/-11 nT. Phi angle was predominantly negative.

Forecast: HSS conditions are expected to continue through 08 Feb.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to CH HSS onset.

Forecast: Quiet to active levels are expected on 06-07 Feb followed by quiet to unsettled levels on 08 Feb as CH HSS conditions persist.

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