[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2023 Jan 21 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2023 Jan 21 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 3192 (N16W22, Fki/beta-gamma) produced the largest event of the period with a C7.3/Sn flare at 20/2247 UTC. It, along with Regions 3186 (N24W75, Cso/beta), 3191 (N12W37, Dao/beta), 3195 (N21W43, Axx/alpha), 3196 (N12E09, Bxo/beta), 3190 (S15W25, Cso/beta-gamma-delta) and 3198 (N27E38, Cso/beta) were either stable or in various states of decay. Regions 3184 (S12E87, Hsx/alpha), 3194 (S24W38, Cao/beta), 3197 (N24E25, Cro/beta) and 3199 (N15E53, Dai/beta) exhibited minor growth.

A large filament near the SW limb erupted between 20/1131-1325 UTC. The filament was about 26 degrees long by about 10 degrees wide, oriented from SE to NW, and centered near S37W47. LASCO/C2 and STEREO-A imagery both contained a SW oriented CME, first observed in LASCO/C2 at 20/1336 UTC. Shortly after, another smaller filament eruption was observed in the vicinity of Region 3190 beginning around 20/1349 UTC. The filament was about 12 degrees long and centered near S23E08. A CME signature first observed in LASCO/C2 imagery after 20/1528 UTC appears to be associated with the eruption. Both events were analyzed and modeled. The results suggested most of the ejecta was directed away from the Sun-Earth line with little, if any, influence from the periphery likely around 24-25 Jan.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate, with a likelihood of M-class flares (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate) on 21-23 Jan. There is a slight chance for an X-class (R3-Strong) event all three days.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels 21-22 Jan with a likely increase to moderate to high levels on 23 Jan due to CH HSS influence. There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters remained enhanced. A possible transition may have occurred from diminishing transient influence into a positive polarity CH HSS. Total field strength ranged between 4-10 nT. The Bz component was rotated as far south as -9 nT with the most significant portion occurring between 21/0300-0530 UTC. Solar wind speeds began to trend upward just before 21/0000 UTC, from ~400 km/s to ~500 km/s by the periods end. The phi orientation was predominately positive, some fairly brief transitions to negative after 21/0000 UTC.

Forecast: The solar wind is likely to remain enhanced on 21-23 Jan due to positive polarity CH HSS influence.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to reach unsettled to isolated active levels over 21-22 Jan in response to CH HSS effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely on 23 Jan due to waning CH HSS influence.

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