[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2023 Jan 15 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2023 Jan 15 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached high levels. Region 3191 (N13E46, Dac/beta-gamma) produced the strongest event of the period, an M6/sf flare (R2 - Moderate) at 15/0342 UTC. Associated with the event was a Type II radio sweep (est. 223 km/s) and a CME signature from the SE limb, first visible in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 15/0348 UTC. Analysis and modeling of the event suggested no Earth-directed component was produced.

Other significant flare activity originated from Region 3182 (S16W54, Dai/beta-delta). An M3.5 (R1-Minor) flare at 14/2021 UTC was followed by a long duration M4.6 (R1-Minor) at 14/2100 UTC. This latest flare showed an EIT wave in SUVI-094 imagery and some ejecta off the WSW limb in GOES-16 SUVI 304 imagery. Subsequent SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery showed an associated CME off the SW limb, first observed after 14/2200 UTC. The CME was analyzed and modeled with the results suggesting a glancing blow possible on 19 Jan.

Minor growth was observed in Regions 3188 (S24E28, Dri/beta), 3194 (S22E44, Cro/beta), 3193 (S22W24, Cro/beta), 3192 (N20E50, Dac/beta-gamma) and 3191. The remaining numbered active regions were either stable or in gradual decay.

Three additional, relatively slow, Type II radio sweeps were reported at 14/1246 UTC (est. 398 km/s), 14/2342 (est. 465 km/s) and 15/0137 UTC (est. 337 km/s). No Type IV radio sweeps were observed after these events. No additional potentially Earth-directed CMEs were identified in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: There is a chance for moderate solar activity, with the continued likelihood of M-class (R1-R2; Minor-Moderate) flares and a slight chance of X-class (R3-Strong) events on 15-17 Jan.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels..

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels 15-17 Jan. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain below S1 (Minor) levels, but a chance for a threshold event remains a possibility for 15-17 Jan.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, likely reflected influence from a CME that left the Sun on 11 Jan. Total magnetic field strength peaked at 12 nT and the Bz component varied between +7/-10 nT. Solar wind speeds were between ~415-520 km/s. Phi angle was mostly negative.

Forecast: Weak enhancements in solar wind parameters are likely slowly diminish over 15 Jan as effects from the 11 Jan CME wane. A return to mostly ambient levels is expected over 16-17 Jan.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels following a sustained southward orientation of Bz around 15/0000 UTC.

Forecast: Geomagnetic conditions are expected to range from quiet to G1 (Minor) levels over 15 Jan under continued transient influence. Isolated unsettled conditions on 16 Jan are expected to become mostly quiet over 17 Jan as solar wind conditions return to ambient levels.

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