[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2023 Jan 09 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2023 Jan 09 0221 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 02 - 08 January 2023

Solar activity ranged from low to high levels. Region 3182 (S17, L=228, class/area=Eki/880 on 08 Jan) produced a the strongest event of the period, an X1/2b flare 06/0057 (R3 - Strong) UTC with an associated Tenflare. The region also produced an M1/Sf flare (R1 - Minor) at 07/0052 UTC. As it was rotating on to the visible disk from the SE limb, Region 3184 (S13, L=179, class/area=Hax/240) produced four M1 flares on 08 Jan at 0839, 0915, 1451 and 1902 UTC. The remaining nine numbered active regions were either quiet or only produced C-class X-ray flares.

Other activity included an asymmetric, partial-halo CME which was observed off the E limb at ~03/0636 UTC. Associated with the event was a C3 flare, a Type II (est. 624 km/s) and Type IV radio sweep, along with a Tenflare. The produced CME was analyzed and not determined to have an Earth-directed component.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate to high levels. High levels were observed on 02-03 Jan in response to a positive polarity CH HSS. The remainder of the summary period reached only moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions. G1 conditions were observed on 04 Jan in response to the arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 30 Dec. Total magnetic field strength increased to a peak of 19 nT and Bz reached as far south as -12 nT. Solar wind speeds through the transient were roughly 420-380 km/s. The remainder of the summary period was at mostly quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 09 January - 04 February 2023

Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over 09-11 Jan, primarily due to the flare potential from Regions 3182 and 3184. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at low levels with a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2 - Minor- Moderate).

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be high levels of 20-30 Jan in response to CH HSS activity. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions. G1 conditions are anticipated on 19 Jan and 26 Jan; active conditions are likely on 20 Jan, 27 Jan and 01 Feb; unsettled conditions are likely on 10-11 Jan, 14 Jan, 18 Jan, 21 Jan, 25 Jan, 28 Jan and 02 Feb. Elevations in geomagnetic activity are anticipated in response to multiple, recurrent CHSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at mostly quiet levels.

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