[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Dec 31 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Dec 31 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels due to an M1 flare at 30/1528 UTC and an M3 flare at 30/1938 UTC, both from Region 3176 (N20E04, Eko/beta-gamma). Growth was observed in Regions 3176, 3177 (S18E38, Dac/beta), 3179 (N14W30, Dai/beta), and 3180 (N20E63, Dao/beta).

A CME associated with the 30/1938 UTC M3 flare has been analyzed and is expected to arrive on 04 Jan. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low, with a chance for M-flares and a slight chance for X-flares on 31 Dec-02 Jan.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak of 3,680 pfu at 30/1510 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 31 Dec-02 Jan. There is a slight chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation event on 31 Dec-02 Jan.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were enhanced under positive polarity CH HSS influence. Solar wind speed ranged from 510-610 km/s. Total field ranged from 5-12 nT while the Bz component was between +10/-11 nT. Phi angle was mostly positive.

Forecast: CH HSS conditions are expected to persist through 31 Dec and begin to slowly wane on 01-02 Jan.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm levels due to CH HSS activity.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to prevail over 31 Dec-02 Jan under continued, but waning positive polarity CH HSS influence.

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