[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Dec 28 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Dec 28 1230 UTC.

solar activity at moderate levels. This region was also responsible for several C-class flares as it rotated onto the west limb. Region 3176 (N19E44, Dki/beta) was the second most active region, producing several C-class flares during the period. It exhibited consolidation in its leader spots, as well as development of additional intermediate spots. Regions 3171 (N24W46, Cao/beta) and 3173 (N24E03, Hsx/alpha) were stable and mostly unchanged. Region 3175 (S22E23, Axx/alpha) continued to decay with only a few immature spots remaining. A new spot group is rotating onto the SE limb, but is too foreshortened to number or obtain an accurate magnetic configuration.

Several far-sided and limb CMEs were observed in Lasco coronagraph imagery, but none were determined to have an Earth-directed component.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels on 28-30 Dec, with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2; Minor-Moderate radio blackouts), and a slight chance for isolated X-class flares (R3-Strong radio blackouts), primarily from Regions 3176 and 3169.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a peak flux value of 1,630 pfu at 27/1715 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 28-30 Dec. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be at background levels through 29 Dec.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment continued to reflect the combined CME and positive polarity CH HSS effects. Total field strength averaged near 5 nT, Bz fluctuated between +/- 6 nT, wind speeds were steady around 510 km/s, and phi was oriented in a positive solar sector.

Forecast: Lingering positive polarity CH HSS and CME enhancements are expected to continue through 28 Dec. A negative polarity CH HSS is forecast to potentially influence the near-Earth environment on 29 Dec. Another positive polarity CH HSS is forecast to become geoeffective as early as late on 30 Dec.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field began the period at active levels as a result of ongoing CME and positive polarity CH HSS activity. As the period progressed, CME/CH HSS effects began to decrease, resulting in a decrease in geomagnetic activity down to quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: Diminishing CME and positive polarity CH HSS effects are expected on 28 Dec, bringing geomagnetic activity down to mostly quiet to unsettled levels. A lingering chance for an isolated active period still exists as the HSS influence tapers off. Another CH HSS (negative polarity) may connect with Earths magnetic field on 29 Dec, keeping a chance for unsettled levels of geomagnetic activity throughout the day. If the CH HSS does not connect, the forecast will end up quieter than expected for most of 29 Dec into the first part of 30 Dec.

Late on 30 Dec a larger, positive polarity CH HSS is forecast to rotate into a geoeffective position. Active levels are anticipated, with a chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels.

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