[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2022 Dec 19 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2022 Dec 19 0151 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 12 - 18 December 2022

Solar activity reached high levels on 14-16 Dec, and low levels were observed on 12-13 and 18 Dec. Region 3165 (S19, L=279, class/area=Ekc/340 on 15 Dec) produced the bulk of this period's M-flare activity. In total 29 M-class flares were observed this period, of which two exceeded R2 (Moderate) levels (an M6/2b flare at 14/1442 UTC and an M5 flare at 15/2240 UTC). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed this period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels throughout the period.

Geomagnetic field activity was quiet to unsettled on 12-13 Dec, and quiet on 14-18 Dec. K-index calculations were unavailable due to an outage on 16-17 Dec.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 19 December - 14 January 2023

Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) events and a slight chance for R3 or greater events throughout the forecast period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 22-24 Dec, and 26 Dec-02 Jan. Normal to moderate levels are expected on 19-21, 25 Dec, and 03-14 Jan.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) storm levels on 21, 25-28 Dec, and 03 Jan due to CH HSS influences. Active levels are likely on 19-20, 22, 29, 31 Dec. Quiet and quiet to unsettled levels are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the forecast period.

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