[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Dec 17 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Dec 17 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity, Dao

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at moderate levels due to M-class flares (R1-Minor) from Region 3165 (S22W82, Dao/beta). The region produced an M2.4 and an M1.2 at 16/1440 UTC and 16/1540 UTC, respectively and also produced numerous C-class activity. Regions 3160 (N23W63, Hsx/alpha) and 3166 (S08W33, Dso/beta) also produced C-class flares during the period. New Region 3169 (N20E75, Hsx/alpha) was numbered this period. The remaining numbered regions were relatively quiet in comparison.

CME activity during the period appears to be mostly limb events or on the far side of the Sun. No Earth-directed CMEs have been identified in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Moderate solar activity is likely, with a slight chance for an X-class flare 17-18 Dec due primarily to the flare potential and activity history of Region 3165.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal-moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels 17-19 Dec. There is a slight chance for a solar energetic proton event (S1-Minor solar radiation storm) on 17-18 Dec due to the event potential from favorably located Region 3165.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Total field strength ranged primarily from 4-6 nT and no significant periods of Bz south were observed. Solar wind speed averaged ~330 km/s and the phi angle was predominantly negative.

Forecast: A slow solar wind regime is anticipated to continue 17 Dec. A negative polarity CH HSS may cause minor enhancements on 18-19 Dec.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Primarily quiet conditions are expected 17 Dec. Isolated unsettled periods are possible on 18-19 Dec due to influences from a CH HSS.

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