[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Dec 15 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Dec 15 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was high, with nine M-class flares during the summary period. The most interesting regions remain 3165 (S20W55, Dac/beta-gamma) and 3163 (S20E15, Ekc/beta-gamma). Region 3165 grew and remained magnetically complex overnight. The region was the source for C-class flares and all of the M-class activity, to include the largest of the period - an M6.3/2b (R2-Moderate) at 14/1442 UTC. Multiple Type II and IV sweeps were observed in association with this Regions flare activity but no CMEs were detected in coronagraph imagery.

Region 3163 also grew and developed magnetically mixed spots. With the increased instability, the region produced C-class and optical subflares. All other regions underwent small changes.

The CME off the NE limb starting near 14/2300 in LASCO C2 imagery is associated with a far-sided event. An additional CME was observed off the SW limb starting near 15/0312 UTC. This event is very slow moving and likely associated with a filament eruption beyond the SW limb. However, analysis is ongoing at the time of this writing. No other significant CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Moderate solar activity is expected on 15-17 Dec, with a strong likelihood of additional M1 (R1-Minor) flares and a slight chance of a X-class (R3-Strong) event due primarily to the complexity and recent activity production of Region 3165.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels 15-17 Dec. Regarding the greater than 10 MeV proton flux, there is a slight chance of a solar energetic proton event (S1-Minor solar radiation storm) 15-17 Dec due primarily to the favorable position, instability, and event level potential of Region 3165.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Total field was between 4-8 nT and Bz was at benign values. Solar wind speeds were at or below 400 km/s. Phi remained negative.

Forecast: A slow solar wind regime is anticipated to continue 15-17 Dec.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Primarily quiet conditions are expected 15-17 Dec.

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