[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Dec 08 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Dec 08 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 3157 (N16E13, Csi/beta) and Region 3153 (S18W11, Fko/beta) were the only two numbered regions producing flare activity. Region 3157 underwent minor growth and produced the largest flare of the period, a C5.8/sN flare at 07/1304 UTC. Region 3153 remained inactive. Region 3161 (N26E05, Bxo/beta) was numbered this period and is comprised of what was originally thought to be the trailer spots of Region 3156 (N25W01/Hsx/alpha). The remaining numbered regions were stable or in decay.

The three CMEs visible in LASCO C2 imagery starting near 08/0600 UTC were all from activity at or beyond their respective limbs, and are not Earth directed. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low through 10 Dec. There continues to be a chance for M-class flares and radio blackouts up to the R2 (Moderate) level. There also remains a slight chance for X-class flares capable of producing R3 (Strong) radio blackouts.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels. A peak flux of 2,250 pfu was observed at GOES-16 at 07/1310 UTC before dropping to normal to moderate levels with a push from a CIR ahead of a CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate levels on 08 Dec, then reach moderate to high levels on 09-10 Dec with elevated solar wind speeds. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment was enhanced with the what was likely a CIR, followed by the early arrival of an anticipated CH HSS (negative polarity). At 07/0842 UTC the IMF became enhanced, increasing from 5 nT to 20 nT by 07/1545 UTC. Wind speeds increased to near 550 km/s by the end of the period. Phi was mostly negative.

Forecast: CH HSS effects are anticipated to last through 09 Dec, before waning on 10 Dec.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) storm levels early with the arrival of a CIR and CH HSS.

Forecast: Isolated periods of G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely to be observed on 08 Dec with HSS conditions underway. Mostly unsettled to active levels are expected 09 Dec as the solar wind environment begins to recover. Quiet to unsettled conditions are forecast on 10 Dec with a gradual return to background conditions.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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