[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Dec 03 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Dec 03 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low with C-class flare activity, the largest of which was a C3.1 flare at 03/0623 UTC from an area of enhanced flux from just beyond the eastern limb. Region 3152 (N25, L=79) decayed to plage. Region 3153 (S17E52, Eko/Beta-Delta) remains the largest spot group on the visible disk, has been little changed this period, and was responsible for C1 flares. The remaining regions were relatively stable and otherwise unremarkable. New spots were observed near N23E26, but we await USAF observatory reports or flare activity before being considered for numbering. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low, with a chance for M-class flare activity, over 03-05 Dec.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 8,780 pfu at 02/1915 UTC and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 03-05 Dec and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment was enhanced this period due to sustained positive polarity CH HSS influence. Total magnetic field strength was steady near 4-5 nT and Bz ranged between +/-4 nT. Solar wind speeds reached a peak of around 700 km/s at ACE, but have since gradually declined to near 575 km/s. Phi was predominantly positive. Forecast: Solar wind conditions are expected to slowly return to background levels over 03-04 Dec, and persist at background levels on 05 Dec.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field will likely reach active levels on 03 Dec under continued, but waning positive polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to prevail on 04 Dec, with quiet levels expected on 05 Dec under a nominal solar wind regime.

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