[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Dec 02 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Dec 02 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels with several C-class flares. The largest flare of the period was a C8 at 02/0920 UTC from newly numbered Region 3156 (N27E78, Hax/alpha). Region 3153 (S17E65, Dko/beta) also contributed C-flares as it continues to rotate into view. The other numbered regions were stable and mostly inactive.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on 02-04 Dec.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum observed value of 3,835 pfu at 01/1840 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue to reach high levels through 04 Dec, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment reflected persistent CH HSS influence. Total field strength decreased from 10-12 nT to near 5 nT, Bz was between +/-5 nT, and wind speeds were between 550-600 km/s. Phi angle was mostly positive.

Forecast: CH HSS influence is expected to continue through 02 Dec before subsiding by 03 Dec, returning to near background conditions. On 04 Dec, the potential arrival of the 29 Nov CME combined with the slight possibility of a glancing blow from the 01 Dec CME associated with the M1 flare, could cause enhancements in the solar wind environment.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached active levels as positive polarity CH HSS influence continued.

Forecast: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on 02 Dec as CH HSS influence persists. CH HSS effects are expected to decrease to mostly unsettled levels by 03 Dec. An increase to active levels, with a chance for G1 (Minor) conditions, is expected by 04 Dec with the combined effects of the aforementioned CMEs.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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