[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Nov 19 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Nov 19 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 3150 (N22W50, Dai/beta) produced the largest flare of the period, a C8/Sf at 19/0623 UTC. GOES/SUVI 195 imagery suggests potential for an associated CME with the event but additional coronagraph imagery is needed. The region steadily developed over the past 24 hours. Minor development was also observed in Regions 3147 (S13E35, Cao/beta), 3148 (S33E25, Dro/beta), and 3149 (N21E44, Cro/beta).

Other activity included a filament eruption in the NE quadrant beginning around 19/0700 UTC in GOES/SUVI 304 imagery. Additional imagery is also require to determine if a CME with an Earth-directed component was produced with the event.

Forecast: Over 19-21 Nov, C-class flare activity is likely with a slight chance for isolated M-flare activity.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate over 19-20 Nov, and high on 21 Nov. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected minor enhancements the IMF. Total magnetic field strength gradually increased from nominal levels are the beginning of the reporting period to a peak of 12 nT around 19/1000 UTC. Solar wind speeds were between The solar wind environment was nominal until around 18/1500 UTC, when a minor discontinuity, possibly associated with CME passage, was observed. After 1500 UTC the total field strength increased to 11 nT and the Bz component became variable. Solar wind speed values fluctuated between ~310-390 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the negative sector.

Forecast: Solar wind conditions are expected to become further enhanced over 19-20 Nov due to negative polarity CH HSS influence. Waning CH HSS effects are predicted for 21 Nov.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to reach minor storm levels on 19-20 Nov, and active levels on 21 Nov, due to negative polarity CH HSS influence.

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