[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Nov 11 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Nov 11 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 3141 (N13E07, Eki/beta-gamma) produced the largest flare of the period, an M1/1f at 11/0714 UTC. Associated with the event was Type IV radio sweep. Subsequent coronagraph imagery showed a very narrow CME signature directed eastward of the Sun-Earth line. Development was exhibited among the intermediate spots and separation was observed in its leader spot. Region 3140 (N24W16, Dao/beta) also developed two small spots behind the leader spot. Region 3145 (N27W02, Hrx/alpha) was in decay. The remaining numbered regions were plage.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) and a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3-Strong) on 11-13 Nov due primarily to the flare potential of Region 3141.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,330 pfu at 10/1915 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate levels with a chance for high on 11-13 Nov. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected minor enhancement in the IMF. Total field ranged from 6-10 nT while the Bz component was between +8/-7 nT. Solar wind speeds were between ~300-345 km/s. Phi angle was variable.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced on 11-12 Nov due to negative polarity CH HSS activity.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on 11-12 Nov due to CH HSS activity. Mostly quiet conditions are expected over 13 Nov.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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