[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Nov 08 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Nov 08 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels. Region 3141 (N14E33, Eko/beta-gamma) continued to grow slightly during the past 24 hours, developing a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. This region produced a long duration C3 flare at 07/1515 UTC, as well as several B-level enhancements. Region 3142 (N26E02, Cro/beta) exhibited slight growth, but was otherwise inactive. Region 3143 (S14E0, Cro/beta) developed and was numbered during the period, but was also inactive. The remaining numbered regions were either stable or in decay. We continue to monitor the copious amount of filaments scattered around the visible disk in both hemispheres. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: C-class flares are expected over the next three days (08-10 Nov), with a chance for M-flares (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate) on all three days.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a peak flux of 9,398 pfu observed at 07/0925 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to return to high levels on 08-10 Nov. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters remained enhanced throughout the period following the passing of a suspected transient, which was likely associated with dimming observed in the eastern hemisphere on 03 Nov. Total magnetic field strength leveled off near 11 nT after reaching a peak of 15 nT at ~07/0930 UTC. The Bz component turned primarily southward around 07/0930 UTC and reached as far south as -15 nT before rebounding northward the last several hours of the period. Solar wind speeds remained relatively steady, averaging near 400 km/s for most of the period. Phi was predominantly oriented in the positive sector with brief excursions to a negative orientation.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced over the next three days (08-10 Nov) due to a combination of embedded transient influence early, followed by on-and-off again CH HSS activity.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: Geomagnetic activity reached G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels, likely attributed to a transient that departed the Sun on 03 Nov.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to active levels, with a chance for isolated G1 (Minor) storm conditions primarily during the early hours of 08-10 Nov.

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