[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Nov 01 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Nov 01 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Low-level solar activity was observed again this period. Region 3131 (N23W25, Hkx/alpha) exhibited slight decay. Region 3135 (N27E19, Eao/beta-gamma) continued to develop intermediate spots, and was responsible for producing C-class flares. New Region 3136 (S06E45, Bxo/beta) was numbered, but was quiet and stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low from 01-03 Nov.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 4,923 pfu observed at 31/1755 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 01-03 Nov, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Continued, but weakening positive polarity CH HSS influences prevailed this period. Total field strength was steady near 5 nT and Bz ranged from +/-5 nT. Wind speeds were between ~450-475 km/s. Phi remained in a positive orientation, with several, brief oscillations into a negative orientation the last half of the period.

Forecast: Persistent enhancements in the solar winds are expected on 01 Nov due to sustained positive polarity CH HSS influences. By 02-03 Nov, CH HSS influence is expected to diminish, returning to a near background solar wind environment.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels as positive polarity CH HSS influence persisted.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected, with isolated active periods likely, on 01 Nov due to positive polarity CH HSS influences. Conditions are then expected to decrease slightly, with less of a chance for active conditions on 02-03 Nov, as CH HSS influence weakens.

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