[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Oct 14 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Oct 14 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels due to an isolated M1.3 flare at 14/0944 UTC from departing Region 3112 (N23W86, Cao/beta). A few weak C-class flares were also observed from the region. C-class activity was also observed from Region 3119 (N26W51, Dai/beta). Slight decay was observed in Regions 3112 and 3119 as well as in Region 3116 (N29W89, Hax/alpha).

Other activity included a filament eruption at 13/0700 UTC centered near S28E10. The associated CME off the SE limb at at 13/0736 UTC was modelled as a miss.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) on 14-15 Oct and decreasing to a slight chance on 16 Oct as Region 3112 transits the NW limb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak of 4,331 pfu observed at 13/1925 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 14-15 Oct and will likely decrease to moderate levels on 16 Oct with the arrival of a negative polarity CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels through about 14/0300 UTC. Solar wind speeds were low at about 300 km/s, total field was at about 5 nT and the Bz component was weakly south to about 1-3 nT. Phi angle was mostly negative. After 14/0300 UTC, wind speed gradually increased to about 400 km/s, total field increased to 16 nT and the Bz component dipped south to 14 nT. Phi angle remained in a negative orientation. The increase in field strength indicated the arrival of the anticipated negative polarity CH HSS.

Forecast: Enhanced conditions are expected to continue on 14-15 Oct due to negative polarity CH HSS influence. Waning conditions are expected by 16 Oct.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active conditions in response to the onset of an anticipated negative polarity CH HSS.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active conditions on 14-15 Oct under negative polarity CH HSS influence. Mostly quiet conditions are expected to return by 16 Oct.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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