[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Oct 11 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Oct 11 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 3112 (N22W47, Eki/beta) produced three M-Class (R1-Minor) flares, an M2/Sf at 10/1628 UTC, an M3/SB at 11/0842 UTC, and an M1 at 11/1051 UTC. There were Type II radio emissions associated with the M3 (976 km/s) and the M1 (237 km/s). Region 3116 (N30W45, Cao/beta) exhibited decay in its trailer spots. Only minor changes were observed in the remaining spotted active regions on the visible disk.

A CME off the SE limb, first visible in LASCO C2 imagery at 09/2348 UTC, was associated with a filament eruption centered near S24E45. Analysis and modeling of the CME suggested the ejecta was off of the Sun-Earth line. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) over 11-13 Oct, primarily due to the flare potential of Regions 3112 and 3116.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum of 3,590 pfu observed at 10/1625 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 11-13 Oct due to HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected diminishing influence from positive polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength was at 2-6 nT. The Bz component briefly reached as far south as -5 nT. Solar wind speeds steadily decreased through the period, from ~500 km/s to ~450 km/s by the periods end. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the positive sector.

Forecast: A return to near nominal levels is expected over 11 Oct for the solar wind parameters. There is a possibility of a grazing from a CME that left the Sun on 07 Oct to cause a mild enhancement in the IMF and density on 12 Oct.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 11 Oct as the HSS slowly diminishes. Unsettled to active levels are possible on 12 Oct due to a grazing from the 07 Oct CME. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for 13 Oct.

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