[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Oct 07 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Oct 07 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Region 3112 (N22E03, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) was relatively quiet, with only small C-class enhancements. Region 3116 (N30E08, Dki/beta) was stable. Region 3115 (S18W43, Cao/beta) underwent decay and was inactive. New Region 3019 (N27E42, Bxo/beta) was numbered this period and was unremarkable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low, with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate) and a slight chance for an X-class (R3 Strong) flare on 7-9 Oct due mainly to the flare potential of Region 3112.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum of 2,404 pfu, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels 7-9 Oct due to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of continuing positive polarity CH HSS influences. Total field strength ranged mainly from 5-7 nT and the Bz component underwent periods of prolonged southward direction. Solar wind speed ranged between 450-500 km/s. Phi was predominantly positive.

Forecast: CH HSS influences are expected to continue 7-9 Oct as another positive polarity CH HSS moves into geoeffective position on 8 Oct. CMEs from 3 and 4 Oct could possibly cause additional enhancements in the solar wind.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active due to CH HSS influences.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active due to lingering but waning CH HSS influences on 7 Oct. Quiet to active conditions are also expected on 8 Oct as another CH HSS moves into geoeffective position with possible embedded transient influences. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 9 Oct as CH HSS effects begin to wane.

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