[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Oct 02 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Oct 02 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached high levels as Region 3110 (N17W45, Dai/beta) produced an M5/1b flare at 01/2010 UTC and an M8/1n flare at 02/0221 UTC. The M8 flare had a Type IV radio emission and a 190 sfu Tenflare. Region 3110 appeared to have some instability as opposite polarity spots appeared to be upwelling north of the main spot. Region 3112 (N22E64, Fki/beta-gamma-delta) rotated further into view as a large, elongated, and magnetically complex spot group. However, it only managed to produce isolated C-class flaring.

Multiple CMEs occurred. The first was a CME off the W limb at 01/1253 UTC in ST A COR2 imagery. This was associated with an approximate 22 degree long filament eruption, centered near N15W14 beginning at 01/1204 UTC. The second and third CMEs were associated with the two M-flares previously mentioned and were observed off the NW limb (C2 imagery) at 01/2036 UTC and 02/0236 UTC. Preliminary modelling of the 01/1253 UTC and 01/2036 UTC CMEs show the potential for a glancing blow late on 03 Oct to early 04 Oct, however confidence is low due to imagery gaps.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) likely and a chance for X-class flares (R3-strong) on 02-04 Oct due to flare potential of Regions 3110 and 3112.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels, but indicated a slight uptick following the M5 event.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate on 02 Oct with a chance for high levels on 03-04 Oct due to CH HSS/CME influence. There is a chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event (S1-Minor) on 02-04 Oct due to flare potential of Regions 3110 and 3112.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated a slightly elevated solar wind speed from weaker than expected positive polarity HSS influences. Solar wind speed averaged around 433 km/s. A small discontinuity in density and total field values at 01/1506 UTC was likely a small transient passage. Total field values increased from 6 nT to 9 nT and slowly decreased to around 7 nT. The Bz component ranged from +7/-6 nT. Phi angle was positive.

Forecast: An enhanced solar wind environment is expected over 02-04 Oct due to positive polarity CH HSS influences. Further enhancements are possible late on 03 Oct to early on 04 Oct due to potential glancing blows from the 01 Oct CMEs. Further analysis is in progress for confirmation.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Minor (G1) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on 02-04 Oct, due to positive polarity CH HSS influences as well as a possible glancing blow from the 01 Oct CMEs.

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