[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Sep 16 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Sep 16 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached high levels following an impulsive M7.9 flare at 16/0949 UTC from Region 3098 (N18W83, Ehc/beta-gamma) as it crested the NW limb. This region remained the most magnetically complex spot on the disk and was responsible for several C-class flares as well. Region 3103 (S18W01, Dac/beta) exhibited growth in both areal coverage and magnetic complexity, and was responsible for a C3.9 flare at 16/0317 UTC. Region 3100 (S24W22, Cso/beta) exhibited decay in its trailer spots and was inactive during the period. Region 3102 (S26E31, Dko/beta) showed some development in its trailer spots and produced a few low-level C-flares.

Analysis of the ~10 degree long filament that erupted from near S03W47 determined the associated CME did not have an Earth-directed component. Modeling of the CME associated with some coronal dimming in the SDO AIA/304 imagery at approximately 16/0153 UTC is underway as of this writing.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels on 16-17 Sep, with a continuing chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts. Very low levels are likely by 18 Sep as Region 3098 rotates off the visible disk.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained mildly enhanced at levels increasing to just over 3 pfu during the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to remain at normal to moderate levels, but is anticipated to return to high levels on 18 Sep in response to CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to trend towards background conditions over 16-17 Sep. There remains however, a slight chance for an S1 (Minor) event on 16-17 Sep due to the solar particle event probabilities of Region 3098.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected diminishing transient influence. Total magnetic field strength decreased from ~13 nT to end the period near 6 nT, Bz was north for the entire period, and solar wind speeds were near 350 km/s. Phi angle was in a mostly negative orientation until after 16/1600 UTC when it began oscillating between a positive and negative orientation.

Forecast: A negative polarity CH HSS is expected to move into a geoeffective position on 16 Sep, enhancing solar wind parameters on 16-18 Sep.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to reach active levels, with a chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels, on 16-17 Sep in response to negative polarity CH HSS influence. Quiet to unsettled levels are likely on 18 Sep.

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