[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Sep 15 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Sep 15 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low, with the background flux at C-class levels. Regions 3098 (N19W68, Ehc/beta-gamma) and 3102 (S26E38, Dao/beta) remained the most interesting sunspot groups present. They produced multiple optical and C-class flares, with the largest flare of the period a C7/Sf at 14/1216 UTC from Region 3102. Region 3100 (S24W08, Cso/beta) changed little and was mainly inactive. A small area of potential spots recently emerged near S16E12 and will be monitored for potential designation. A slow rising, long duration C6 flare peaked at 15/0633 UTC from a source apparently beyond the northwest limb.

An approximately 10 degree long filament centered at about S03W47 became active after 15/0300 UTC and began erupting outward after 15/0600 UTC as noted in GOES SUVI/304A and NSO/GONG imagery. Coronagraph imagery from SOHO/LASCO was just becoming available as of this report and showed a likely related CME coming from the west limb. However, we will need to await fully updated imagery before being able to conduct any analysis for a possible Earth-directed component.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be mainly at low levels, with a continuing chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts on 15-17 Sep due primarily to the flare potential of Region 3098 and Region 3102.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux peaked at high levels earlier in the period and returned to normal levels later in the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained mildly enhanced at mainly 1-2 pfu.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to remain at normal levels the remainder of 15 Sep, but is anticipated to return to high levels 16-17 Sep in response to CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to trend towards routine, background ambient conditions on 15-16 Sep, with a return to standard background 17 Sep. There remains however, a slight chance for an S1 (Minor) event 15-17 Sep due to the solar particle event probabilities of Regions 3098 and 3102.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of likely transient passage. Total IMF strength was in the midst of a minor enhancement when the reporting period began and subsequently increased to 16 nT at 14/2152 UTC with apparent arrival of the main driver. The Bz component was initially variable, but underwent a pronounced southward deviation to -14 nT with the magnetic cloud arrival. Afterwards, the IMF orientation turned northward. Solar wind speed only experienced a mild increase to a peak of ~350 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly positive, with a few early deflections into a negative sector.

Forecast: The likely transient related, enhanced solar wind environment is expected to continue on 15 Sep. An isolated, negative polarity CH HSS is expected to disturb the IMF with CIR arrival, and elevate solar wind speed with HSS onset on 16 Sep and continue on 17 Sep.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled until approximately 14/2315 UTC when a geomagnetic sudden impulse (~30 nT) was observed at the Boulder magnetometer. Conditions then increased to active levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled, with a chance for active periods the remainder of 15 Sep. Unsettled to active levels, with a chance for G1 (Minor) storm levels are expected 16-17 Sep in response to CIR arrival and subsequent CH HSS effects.

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