[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Sep 04 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Sep 04 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Region 3089 (S22W65, Ekc/beta-gamma) produced the bulk of this periods C-class flare activity and was mostly stable throughout the day. Regions 3092 (S10E34, Hsx/alpha), 3093 (S27E24, Bxo/beta), and 3094 (N21E60, Cao/beta) were mostly quiet and stable this period. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-flares and a slight chance for X-flares over 04-05 Sep. Solar activity is expected to decrease to very low levels on 06 Sep following the exit of Region 3089.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate on 04 Sep, with high levels expected on 05-06 Sep following a prolonged period of increased geomagnetic field activity. There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event at the S1 (Minor) storm level over 04-05 Sep due to the flare potential and location of Region 3089.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment was enhanced under strong positive polarity CH HSS influences this period. Total field strength reached 13 nT shortly after mid-period and the Bz component was sustained southward between -5/-10 nT for prolonged periods. Solar wind speeds steadily increased from around 500 km/s at 03/2100 UTC to between 650-700 km/s by 04/0300 UTC.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced over 04-06 Sep due to sustained positive polarity CH HSS influences and the anticipated glancing-blow arrival of a CME on 05 Sep.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm levels this period in response to strong positive polarity CH HSS influences. Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm levels on 04 Sep due to continued positive polarity CH HSS influences. Minor storms are expected on 05 Sep due to a combination of CH HSS influences and CME effects. Unsettled and active conditions are expected on 06 Sep under waning CH HSS influences.

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