[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Aug 14 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Aug 14 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 3079 (S10W34, Cai/beta) remained the most active region on the visible disk, producing a C6 flare at 13/1300 UTC. the strongest of the period. The region exhibited some decay in its leader spot while also developing several small intermediate spots. A new region of emerging flux was observed N of Region 3076 (N16W16, Cai/beta). That region was in gradual decay. Region 3081 (N09E36, Dai/beta) continued to grow but remained relatively quiet. The other 4 numbered regions were with stable or in decay.

Other activity included magnetic reconnection events in the vicinity of Region 3078 (S25E12, Cso/beta). Several instances of coronal restructuring were observed in SDO/AIA 193 beginning after 13/1700 UTC. Subsequent CME signatures were observed in SOHO LASCO/C2 imagery and are currently being analyzed and modeled to determine if an Earth-directed CME was produced.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) flares on 14-16 Aug due to the development of Regions 3079 and 3081.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak of 6,242 pfu observed at 13/14510 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 14-15 Aug in association with elevated wind speeds from a geoeffective CH HSS. A return to normal to moderate levels is anticipated on 16 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated the waning effects of a positive polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength ranged between 2-7 nT, while the Bz component varied between +/-5 nT. Solar wind speeds were in gradual decline, with peak speeds near 535 km/s near the beginning of the period slowing to speeds near 475 km/s by the periods end. Phi was predominantly oriented in the positive sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to wane over 14 Aug. A return to nominal conditions is expected over 15-16 Aug.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to unsettled levels due to persistent CH HSS influences.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled levels are expected early on 14 Aug as positive polarity CH HSS effects slowly diminish. Conditions are expected to return to mostly quiet levels over 15 Aug and 16 Aug.

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