[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Aug 11 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Aug 11 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels due to a long-duration C1 flare at 11/0658 UTC from Region 3077 (S17W30, Cso/beta). There was associated dimming and filament activity around the region with this event. However, no CME was detected in coronagraph or STEREO imagery. New Region 3076 (N14E23, Hsx/alpha) grew in spot count but was inactive. The remaining numbered regions were quiet and stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares on 11-13 Aug.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, reaching a peak of 6675 pfu at 10/1700 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 11-13 Aug in association with the elevated wind speeds from the CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Sustained positive polarity CH HSS influence kept the solar wind parameters enhanced throughout the period. Total field averaged near 6 nT, the Bz component fluctuated between +/-5 nT, while solar wind speeds continued to reach ~550-600 km/s. Phi remained in a predominantly positive orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain under a positive polarity CH HSS regime through 11 Aug. The enhanced solar wind environment should begin to subside late on 12 Aug, with CH HSS influence weakening on 13 Aug.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled throughout the period.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled levels are expected, with active periods likely and a slight chance for an isolated G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming period on 11 Aug, due to positive polarity CH HSS effects. Conditions are then expected to slowly diminish by 12 Aug, returning to mostly quiet levels by 13 Aug.

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