[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Aug 08 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Aug 08 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Region 3072 (S23W74, Cao/beta) produced a C1.1 flare at 07/2235 UTC, which was the largest on the visible disk. The remaining numbered regions were stable, quiet, and otherwise unremarkable. An approximate 30 degree filament eruption centered near N00E25 that began lifting off at 07/1749 UTC. Additional coronagraph imagery is still needed to assess any potential CME on the Sun-Earth line.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares on 08-10 Aug.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 08 Aug followed by moderate to high levels on 09-10 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS. Total field reached a peak of 14 nT and the Bz component was primarily southward reaching up to -13 nT. Solar wind speeds increased from ~420 km/s to ~565 km/s. Phi was predominantly positive.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue under the influence of multiple positive polarity CH HSSs through 10 Aug. Solar wind speeds in the 550-650 km/s range are likely through 09 Aug based on current trends and sporadic STEREO A Mag/PLASTIC data.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at active to G2 (Moderate) storm levels due to HSS activity.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming levels again late on 08 Aug. Otherwise, active conditions are expected. Unsettled to active levels, with a chance for isolated G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming periods, are expected 09-10 Aug due to an ongoing procession of positive polarity CH HSS.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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