[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Aug 03 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Aug 03 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Region 3068 (S15W17, Esi/beta-gamma) underwent additional spot growth and produced a few B-class flares. New Region 3071 (S16E67, Hsx/alpha) was numbered this period but was inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a chance for C-class flares and slight chance for M-class flare activity 03-05 Aug, mainly due to the flare probability of Region 3068.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels 03 Aug, with a likelihood of reaching high levels on 04-05 Aug due to CH HSS influences.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of continued negative polarity CH HSS influences. Total IMF strength was mildly enhanced and ranged mainly from 6-8 nT, while the Bz component oscillated between north and south orientations with no prolonged southward deviations. Solar wind speed increased to ~550 km/s and the phi angle was predominantly negative.

Forecast: The solar wind field is anticipated to remain enhanced and disturbed due to continuing CH HSS influences 03-04 Aug, with conditions beginning to wane on 05 Aug.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with a chance for G1 (Minor) storm levels on 03 Aug due to continuing CH HSS effects. While CH HSS effects are expected to continue on 04 Aug, responses are likely to weaken slightly with quiet to unsettled conditions prevailing, with a slight chance for G1. Waning CH HSS effects on 05 Aug are expected to result in mainly quiet to unsettled conditions.

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