[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Aug 01 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Aug 01 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. A C9 flare was observed at 31/2309 UTC from an area around the NE limb. Slight growth was observed in the intermediate area of Region 3068 (S15E10, Eso/beta). Region 3070 (N15E54, Bxo/beta) was numbered this period, but was otherwise unremarkable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for C-class flares on 01-03 Aug.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,374 pfu observed at 31/1540 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 01-03 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were enhanced over the period. Total field reached a peak of 15 nT before decreasing to near 4-5 nT. The Bz component underwent a few southward deviations with -9 nT being the most significant. Wind speeds increased from near 400 km/s to briefly reach highs of ~550 km/s before seemingly settling near 470 km/s. Phi was predominantly negative while taking brief excursions into a positive solar sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be enhanced through 03 Aug under CH HSS influence.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled with an isolated active period.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels 01-03 Aug, with a chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming being greatest 01-02 Aug, due to negative polarity CH HSS effects.

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