[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Dec 16 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Dec 16 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. There were six active regions on the visible disk. Region 2910 (N13W10, Cro/beta) was assigned this period but was unremarkable and as was region 2905 (S12W04, Axx/alpha). Region 2906 (S29E03, Csi/beta-gamma) saw development in its intermediate spots and developed a gamma. Region 2927 (S19E34, Dai/beta-delta) maintained a delta its trailing penumbra, grew in area and produced a C4.4 flare at 15/1434 UTC. Region 2908 (S19E50, Dao/beta) also grew in overall area, but was relatively quiet. Region 2909 (S19E72, Dao/beta) produced type II (est. 310 km/s) and IV radio sweeps at 16/0352 and 16/0355 UTC respectively that was associated with a C1.3 flare at 16/0354 UTC.

A subsequent narrow CME from the aforementioned event can first be seen in SOHO NASA C2 imagery off the ESE limb at 16/0412 UTC. Initial analysis indicates an Earth-directed component is not likely and a glancing blow at best would be low confidence. However, modeling is pending as we await STEREO-A coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Low solar activity is expected to continue through 18 Dec with a slight chance of R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate, with a chance for high levels, due to CH HSS influences 16-18 Dec. The 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of continued negative polarity CH HSS influence. Total field has gradually weakened from peaks of 9 nT to an average of 5 nT. The Bz component of the field has oscillated for the duration of the period ranging +/- 7 nT. Phi was predominantly in the negative solar sector while only taking brief excursions into a positive orientation.

Forecast: CH HSS influences are expected to continue 16 Dec with elevated wind speed, but a diminishing trend is anticipated as the CH HSS rotates further westward. Waning conditions are expected on 17 Dec, but some IMF disturbances are still likely. A return to a slow regime is likely on 18 Dec.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled in response to CH HSS effects.

Forecast: Geomagnetic responses are expected to be quiet to unsettled on 16-17 Dec as CH HSS effects weaken. A return to primarily quiet conditions it expected on 18 Dec.

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