[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2022 Mar 28 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2022 Mar 28 0114 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 21 - 27 March 2022

Solar activity reached moderate levels at 25/0526 UTC due to an M1/1f flare from Region 2974 (S18, L=090, class/area Cso/90 on 23 Mar). Type II (estimated shock velocity of 959 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps were observed with this event. A subsequent CME signature was first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 25/0548 UTC. Analysis and modeling of the CME suggested an Earth-directed component with an anticipated arrival on 27 Mar. Solar activity reached low levels on 22-24 and 26-27 Mar. Very low levels were observed on 21 Mar.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity reached active levels late on 27 Mar due to positive-polarity CH HSS influence. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 22, 24-26 Mar. Quiet conditions prevailed on 21 and 23 Mar.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 28 March - 23 April 2022

Solar activity is likely to be low, with a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts, throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 04-07 Apr, with moderate levels expected during the remaining portion of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) storm levels on 28 Mar due to combined CME and CH HSS effects. Active levels are expected on 03, 20-21 Apr due to recurrent CH HSS influence. Quiet to unsettled levels are anticipated throughout the remainder of the outlook period.

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