[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2021 Dec 20 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2021 Dec 20 0238 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 13 - 19 December 2021

Solar activity ranged from very low to moderate levels throughout the week. Very low activity levels (B-class flares) were observed on 13 Dec, with low levels (C-class flares) observed on 14-16, 18-19 Dec. Moderate solar activity was observed on 17 Dec due to an M1/1f flare at 17/0051 UTC from Region 2911 (N19, L=273, class/area=Cao/80 on 17 Dec), which was the largest event of the period. In addition to the single M-class flare, Region 2911 along with Regions 2907 (S19, L=315, class/area=Dki/310 on 18 Dec) and 2909 (S21, L=285, class/area=Dso/210 on 17 Dec) were prolific C-class flare producers throughout the week. A number of CMEs were observed off the SE quadrant throughout the week, but no obvious transient solar wind signatures were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 13 Dec, with normal to moderate levels observed over 14-19 Dec.

Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 19 Dec due to what was thought to be CIR effects preceding negative polarity CH HSS influence. Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed on 13 and 15-16 Dec and quiet conditions were observed throughout the remainder of the week.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 20 December - 15 January 2022

Solar activity is expected to very low to low throughout the outlook period, with a slight chance for isolated R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackout conditions.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 22-24 Dec and 29 Dec-01 Jan. Normal to moderate flux levels are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels early on 20 Dec due to what is thought to be the effects of a CIR preceding negative polarity CH HSS influence. Active conditions are expected on 21-22, and 28 Dec due to the anticipated influences of multiple recurrent CH HSSs. Quiet or quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the forecast period.

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