[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Oct 21 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Oct 21 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2886 (S19E30, Hsx/alpha) remained quiet and inactive. An unnumbered region located just beyond the southeastern limb was responsible for a couple B-level enhancements during the period. A solar filament centered near near N24W43 was observed lifting off in Gong H-alpha imagery from 21/0536 - 0625 UTC. No CME signature is present in Lasco imagery as of this writing. No-Earth directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Very low solar activity is expected over 21-23 Oct.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux retained background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels 21-23 Oct and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of likely CH HSS influence. Total field strength peaked at 12 nT before decreasing back to average near 5 nT for the last half of the period. The Bz component observed two brief southward deflections to -5 nT but remained mostly neutral to northward for the latter half of the period. Wind speeds began the period near 385 km/s before gradually increasing to peak near 555 km/s, then ending the period just over 500 km/s. Phi started the period in a positive orientation before settling into a negative position just after 20/1415 UTC.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced through 21 Oct, and into the first half of 22 Oct as CH HSS effects persist. A return to a mostly background regime is expected by 23 Oct.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet, despite the CH HSS enhancements.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled levels are expected 21 Oct, with a chance for an isolated active period, in response to CH HSS effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected 22 Oct as CH HSS effects taper off. A mostly quiet geomagnetic field is expected 23 Oct.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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