[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Oct 18 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Oct 18 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. A new region of flux was noted rotating around the SE limb and will be assigned an active region number if it persists. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Very low solar activity is expected over 18-20 Oct.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux retained background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background over 18-20 Oct.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected an enhancement in the IMF likely caused by a transient feature. Total magnetic field strength was between 8-13 nT. Bz was slowly rotated from primarily southward to northward after ~18/0300 UTC. Phi angle was variable.

Forecast: A CIR and subsequent positive polarity CH HSS are expected cause enhanced solar wind parameters on 18-20 Oct.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to a period of sustained southward Bz in the latter half of the period.

Forecast: Unsettled to active levels are likely on 18-19 Oct due to CH HSS influence. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 20 Oct as CH HSS effects wane.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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