[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Oct 16 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Oct 16 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2885 (N15, L=172) decayed to plage as it rotated towards the W limb but did manage a B9 flare at 15/1516UTC. Region 2882 (N15W85, Hsx/alpha) was quiet and stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Very low solar activity is expected, with a slight chance for C-class flares over 16 Oct.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux retained background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background 16-18 Oct.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected a weak enhancement in the IMF after 16/0000 UTC. Total magnetic field strength increased from at or below 5 nT to 8-9 nT. Bz primarily northward in the latter half of the day but briefly reached as far south as -8 nT at 16/0027 UTC. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the negative sector.

Forecast: Weak enhancements in the IMF are possible on 16-17 Oct. A CIR ahead of a positive polarity CH HSS is expected cause enhanced solar wind parameters on 18 Oct.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 16 Oct. Quiet levels on 17 Oct are likely to increase to active conditions on 18 Oct due to the arrival of a CIR ahead of a positive polarity CH HSS.

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