[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Oct 11 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Oct 11 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2882 (N16W20, Dho/beta) remained relatively quiet throughout the period. Penumbral decay continued in the spots north of its largest spot. Regions 2883 (N27W67, Axx/alpha) and 2884 (S19W34, Axx/alpha) were quiet and in gradual decay.

A EPL was reported between 10/2245-2259 UTC near N31W88. The event produced a C2 flare at 10/2302 UTC. An associated CME was first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 10/2312 UTC. The ejecta from the event was analyzed and determined to be off of the Sun-Earth line. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate) on 11-13 Oct due to the flare potential from Region 2882.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained well below warning thresholds.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain near background over 11-13 Oct.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected minor enhancements in the IMF. Total magnetic field strength ranged between 2-12 nT. Several periods of sustained Bz south were observed with a maximum negative deflection of -11 nT observed at 10/1908 UTC. Solar wind speeds steadily increased from ~300 km/s to ~400 km/s by the periods end. Phi angle was variable.

Forecast: The anticipated onset of a CME that left the Sun on 09 Oct will likely enhance solar wind parameters after midday on 11 Oct and persist through 12 Oct. A return to mostly nominal conditions is likely on 13 Oct.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels due to periods of sustained southward Bz.

Forecast: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storms are likely on 11 Oct due to the arrival of the 09 CME. Active levels to G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely on 12 Oct as influence from the CME persists. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 13 Oct as CME influence wanes.

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