[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Oct 04 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Oct 04 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Departed Region 2877 (S21, L=328) was the most active region this period producing numerous B-class events from beyond the W limb, including a B9 x-ray event at 04/0307 UTC. Region 2880 (N32W14, Dso/beta) produced a few B-class events. Some area decay was observed in the region. New Region 2882 (N17E70, Hsx/alpha) was quiet and unchanged.

At about 04/0133 UTC, GOES-16 SUVI 304 imagery observed surging in the SE portion of Region 2880. A faint, slow-moving CME was observed off the W limb as seen in LASCO C2 imagery at 04/0248 UTC. Model analysis is ongoing for any Earth-directed component.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels, with a chance for C-class activity on 04-06 Oct.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux levels are expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 04-06 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected a nominal environment. Wind speeds meandered between about 350-415 km/s, total field ranged between 3-5 nT and the Bz component was variable between +3 to -4 nT. Phi was highly variable throughout the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at background levels for the remainder of 04 Oct. Parameters are expected to become slightly enhanced on 05-06 Oct due to weak, negative polarity CH HSS influence.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to isolated unsettled levels.

Forecast: Quiet levels are expected for the remainder of 04 Oct becoming quiet to unsettled on 05-06 Oct under weak, negative polarity CH HSS influences.

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