[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Oct 01 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Oct 01 1230 UTC.

Solar activity was at low levels due to a single C1 x-ray event from Region 2877 (S20W60, Dao/beta-gamma) observed at 30/1249 UTC. The region continued to exhibit leader and trailer spot separation and intermediate spot decay. Region 2880 (N32E21, Dho/beta) increased in overall area coverage. Early in the period, the two large leader spots merged into one larger spot with two separate umbra visible.

Beginning at about 30/1138 UTC, a filament eruption was observed in GOES-16 SUVI 304 imagery along a channel centered near N22E48. A majority of the material appeared to have been reabsorbed. CME analysis will be conducted as coronagraph imagery becomes available.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be at C-class levels, with a slight chance of M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) on 01-03 Oct.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: Following an initial redistribution upon CME arrival, the greater than 2 MeV electron flux levels are expected to reach high levels on 01-03 Oct.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at or near background levels through about 30/1730 UTC with total magnetic field strength (Bt) less than 5 nT and the Bz component at near-neutral levels. Wind speed averaged just under 400 km/s and phi was mostly positive with a brief excursion into the negative sector from approximately 30/1645-1900 UTC. After 30/1730 UTC, total field Bt increased to just under 10 nT and further increased to 14 nT at about 30/1815 UTC. The Bz component deflected southward to -9 nT and density rose briefly to 43 pp/cm. Wind speeds gradually increased to an average of about 540 km/s with a peak of near 565 km/s at about 01/0130 UTC. Phi became variable after 01/0000 UTC. These enhanced wind parameters were consistent with WSA-Enlil model output for the expected arrival of the 27 and 28 Sep CMEs.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on 01-02 Oct under CME influence. Conditions are anticipated to taper off late on 02 Oct into 03 Oct as CME influence subsides.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels early in the period, increasing to unsettled to active conditions in response to CME effects.

Forecast: G1 (Minor) storming is still likely later on 01 Oct due to CME influence. By 02 Oct, CME effects are anticipated to taper off, resulting in mostly unsettled to active levels. A return to mostly quiet to unsettled levels are expected by 03 Oct.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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