[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Sep 30 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Sep 30 1230 UTC.

Solar activity was at low levels.

Region 2877 (S18W45, Dao/beta-gamma) continued to develop and grow in area this period. Intermediate spots formed and then consolidated into the leading and trailing groups. Region 2877 also produced a C2.8/SN flare at 29/2156 UTC, the largest of the period. Region 2880 (N32E30, Dao/beta) also increased in area, developed more mature penumbra, and produced a C1/SF flare at 28/2213.

The partial, asymmetric halo CME observed on 28 Sep is expected to arrive late on 30 Sep/early on 01 Oct.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: A chance for C-class flare activity, with a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts, exists 30 Sep - 01 Oct.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels through 30 Sep. The forecasted CME is likely to elevate electron flux to high levels on 01-02 Oct.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary:

Solar wind parameters were at or near background levels as positive polarity CH HSS influence decreases. Total magnetic field strength was less than 5 nT and the Bz component was near-neutral. Wind speed trended from a high at the start of the period near 440 km/s to about 390 km/s at the end. Phi was mostly positive, but became variable between sectors between approximately 30/0030-0740 UTC.

Forecast: The CME from 28 Sep is expected to arrive late on 30 Sep, enhancing and disturbing the solar wind environment. Conditions are expected to slowly trend towards an ambient-like state over the course of 02 Oct.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Quiet conditions are anticipated for most of 30 Sep until the 28 Sep CME arrives around the end of the day. Initially an increase to active levels is expected on 30 Sep, although G1 (Minor) storming cannot be entirely ruled out. Nonetheless the best chance for observing G1 geomagnetic storms remains early on 01 Oct when CME effects are at their greatest.

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