[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Sep 26 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Sep 26 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 2871 (S28W21, Dai/beta-gamma) produced an impulsive C1 flare at 25/1917 and 26/1124 UTC. The region exhibited area consolidation, an increase in spot count and mixed magnetic polarities. Region 2872 (N16W31, Cao/beta) exhibited little change and was quiet. Plage Region 2873 (N25, L=055) produced an impulsive C1 flare off the NW limb at 26/0631 UTC. New Regions 2877 (S13E13, Bxo/beta) and 2878 (S21E41, Bxo/beta) both quietly emerged on the disk as simple bi-polar groups. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a chance for C-class flare activity, over 26-28 Sep.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate over 26-28 Sep, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters showed a gradual return to nominal conditions. Solar wind speeds gradually decreased through the period from initial values near 525 km/s to end-of-period values of about 425 km/s. Total field strength ranged between 2-4 nT and the Bz component varied between +4 to -2 nT. The phi angle was in a predominately negative orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced over 26-28 Sep due to CH HSS influence and the possible glancing-blow arrival of the 23 Sep CMEs.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: The anticipated influence of a positive polarity, polar-connected CH HSS is expected to cause periods of active and G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 26 Sep. G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on 27 Sep due to continued positive polarity CH HSS influence coupled with the possibility of a glancing blow from the 23 Sep CMEs. Quiet to isolated active conditions are expected on 28 Sep as CH HSS and CME influences wane.

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