[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2021 Sep 20 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2021 Sep 20 0042 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 13 - 19 September 2021

Solar activity reached low levels. Region 2871 (S28, L=359, class/area=Dao/60 on 19 Sep) produced four C-class flares throughout the week, the largest of which was a C3 flare observed at 17/0420 UTC, and was the primary source of solar activity. A filament eruption which lifted off at around 13/0100-0200 UTC and centered near N35W15, produced an Earth-directed CME that arrived at Earth early on 17 Sep.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was normal to moderate throughout the period.

Geomagnetic field activity reached active and G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 17 Sep, and active conditions early on 18 Sep, due to the arrival of the 13 Sep CME. Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed on 13 Sep, and quiet conditions were observed throughout the remainder of the period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 20 September - 16 October 2021

Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flare activity throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 29 Sep-03 Oct and 05-08 Oct. Normal to moderate levels are expected to persist throughout the remainder of the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 28 Sep, with active conditions likely on 25, 29 Sep, and 05, 10 Oct, due to the anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. Quiet to unsettled and mostly quiet conditions are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the outlook period.

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