[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Sep 09 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Sep 09 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at low levels due to occasional C-class flares. Five sunspot groups were present on the visible disk. Regions of note included Region 2864 (N24W53, Cso/beta), which redeveloped weak trailer spots but was inactive. Region 2866 (S18W00, Dkc/beta) changed little and was the source of the largest flare during the period, a C8/1N flare at 08/1730 UTC. Region 2868 (S21W15, Dsi/beta) lead penumbral spot decreased in areal coverage and the region produced a C2/Sf at 08/1258 UTC. Region 2869 (S34E04, Cro/beta) increased in spots and coverage. The 08/0009 UTC C2 flare associated CME is discussed in the Solar Wind and Geospace forecast sections of this report. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery during the period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels 09-11 Sep, with a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2; Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) all three days.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate 09-11 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a return towards a more ambient, background-like environment. Total field strength weakened from 8 nT to 3-4 nT and the Bz component varied, with a few periods of prolonged, but weak southward direction. Solar wind speed was variable, but remained slightly elevated and ranged mostly from 350-425 km/s. The phi angle alternated between sectors.

Forecast: Near ambient, background-like solar wind conditions are expected to continue the remainder of 09 Sep and 10 Sep. The CME associated with the 08/0009 UTC C2/Sf flare from Region 2864 was modeled and the preliminary results indicate a likely near miss just ahead of Earths orbit late 11 Sep to early 12 Sep. Proximity effects may be possible that could result in a minor enhancement in the IMF later on 11 Sep. However, additional analysis and model runs are being conducted to ensure a consensus result.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet, with an early unsettled period.

Forecast: Primarily quiet conditions are expected 09-10 Sep. Isolated unsettled periods are possible later on 11 Sep due to effects related to the likely proximity of the nearby CME passage.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

- - - - - - - - - - - - - Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather Spread the word! - - - - - - - - - - - - - Links of interest: + Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News: I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more. Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities. You can help! Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel: https://www.patreon.com/NW7US The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US ..

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation