[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Aug 29 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Aug 29 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Region 2860 (S29W16, Eki/beta-gamma) produced a C8/Sf flare at 29/1003 UTC and a C7 flare at 29/0044 UTC, the largest events of the period. Region 2859 (N18W25, Hsx/alpha) was absent of significant flaring and decayed to a unipolar spot group. Region 2861 (N16, L=323) decayed to plage. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts over 29-31 Aug due to the flare history of Region 2860.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 10,700 pfu observed at 28/1720 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels over 29-31 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced early in the period due to the continued, but weakening influence of the 23 Aug CME. Solar wind peaked near 380 km/s. Total field reached 8 nT. Bz dropped as low as -7 nT. Phi was positive until 29/0530 UTC. Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be enhanced over 29-30 Aug due to the anticipated arrival of the 26 Aug CME. A gradual return to nominal conditions is expected over the course of 31 Aug.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to reach minor (G1) geomagnetic storm levels on 29-30 Aug due to the anticipated arrival of the 26 Aug CME. Unsettled conditions are likely on 31 Aug.

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