[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Aug 05 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Aug 05 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low with only Region 2850 (S31W61, Axx/alpha) present on the visible disk. The region decayed to near plage multiple times during the UT day. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Very low solar activity is expected 05-07 Aug.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate, with a few brief increases to high levels - but these were intermittent and were not sustained to meet alert criteria. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate, with a chance for high levels 05-07 Aug; while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were quiet and slow. Total IMF strength was less than 5 nT. The Bz component was unremarkable. Solar wind speed was primarily 320-280 km/s and the phi angle varied.

Forecast: The approach of a CIR ahead of an isolated, positive polarity CH HSS will likely agitate the IMF on 05 Aug. CIR arrival and CH HSS onset are likely on 06 Aug, disrupting the solar wind field. Conditions will likely begin waning on 07 Aug.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 05 Aug in response to mild solar wind enhancements. Additional enhancements due to CIR arrival and CH HSS effects will likely lead to unsettled to active periods on 06 Aug. Waning CH HSS influences on 07 Aug are expected to decrease responses to the quiet to unsettled levels.

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