[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Jun 17 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Jun 17 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2833 (N24E18, Hsx/alpha) remained quiet and stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on 17-19 Jun.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 3,100 pfu at 17/1155 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 17-19 Jun in response to persistent high speed solar wind stream effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels in the absence of significant active regions.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a CH HSS regime. Wind speeds slightly decreased to just under 550 km/s and the Phi angle was predominantly negative. Total field strength averaged 3-5 nT, and Bz ranged from +/- 4 nT.

Forecast: Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to persist through 17 Jun before the coronal hole moves out of a geo-effective position on the 18th.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels, with a lingering G1 (Minor) storm period likely on 17 Jun. The threat of a minor storm period on 17 Jun appears to be diminishing, but with wind speeds above 500 km/s, we will keep the chances for an isolated G1 storming period in the forecast. A return to mostly quiet to unsettled conditions is expected on 18-19 Jun.

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