Propagation
[Top] [All Lists]

[Propagation+Space Weather] The W1AW Weekly Propagation Report - 2021 Ma

To: propagation@contesting.com
Subject: [Propagation+Space Weather] The W1AW Weekly Propagation Report - 2021 May 21 20:44 UTC
From: nw7us@sunspotwatch.com
Reply-to: Practical radio-wave propagation and space weather <propagation@contesting.com>
Date: Fri, 21 May 2021 20:44:12 +0000
List-post: <mailto:propagation@contesting.com>
This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

The following is the weekly propagation bulletin from W1AW / ARRL (posting on 20210521 20:44 UTC):

QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 21 ARLP021 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA May 21, 2021 To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP021 ARLP021 Propagation de K7RA

Sunspot activity continues this week, although the average daily sunspot numbers and solar flux have not really changed since last week's report. This was not expected, because on the first day of the reporting week in last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP020 there was no sunspot activity.

Average daily sunspot number hardly changed, from 21.1 to 20.3, and average daily solar flux went from 74.3 to 74.2. I am surprised that solar flux still remains below 80, since April 20.

Geomagnetic indicators were quiet, but values were slightly lower.

Average daily planetary A index changed from 9.1 to 6.6, and average daily middle latitude A index went from 7.4 to 6.3.

Predicted solar flux for the next 30 days is 72 on May 21-27, 73 on May 28, 75 on May 29-31, 77 on June 1, 78 on June 2-12, then 73, 77 and 77 on June 13-15, and 75 on June 16-27.

Predicted planetary A index is 10 and 8 on May 21-22, 5 on May 23 through June 10, then 8, 5, 10 and 8 on June 11-14, then 5, 10 and 8 on June 15-17, and 5 on June 18-30 and beyond.

Yesterday on Thursday planetary A index rose dramatically due to increasing solar wind. The STEREO web site at https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/ has been a good indicator of approaching sunspot activity about to rotate over the Sun's eastern horizon, and currently on early Friday I can see a bright active region about to become geo-effective.

OK1HH sends his geomagnetic activity forecast for the period May 21 to June 15, 2021.

'Geomagnetic field will be: quiet on: May 25-26, (27-31,) June 9-10, 12-13 quiet to unsettled on: May 24, June 1-8 quiet to active on: May (21-23, June 11, 14) unsettled to active: (June 15) active to disturbed: none

'Solar wind will intensify on: May (21-25,) 28-30, June (7,) 9, (14-15).

'Remarks: - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement. - Contradictory indications significantly reduce the accuracy of the forecast.'

WB6VRN spotted a new location for the NOAA solar cycle progression page, https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression and notes the site is interactive.

K1HTV reported, 'On 17 meters during the late afternoon on May 18, 2021, I completed WAC (Worked All Continents), using the FT8 mode, in 11 minutes. Around 3:15 AM EDT the next morning, after awaking from a restless sleep and while still horizontally polarized, I turned on my Android phone. I connected to my shack computer and its 3 video monitors using the VNC app.

'At that early hour (0715 UTC) here at my VA QTH, I found 17 Meters was already open to Europe. I switched down to 30 Meter FT8 and proceeded to work some DX. To my amazement, I was able to make FT8 contacts with all continents to complete WAC (Worked All Continents) in 6 minutes even! Below is the K1HTV log for those contacts, which may be a world record for WAC in the shortest time, at least for the FT8 mode.

'30M FT8 WAC (Worked All Continents in 6:00 minutes

'OC - VK4PN - 2021-0519 07:25:00 started 1st QSO EU - F2YT - 2021-0519 07:26:30 send 73 to end 2nd QSO AF - EA8AT - 2021-0519 07:27:45 sent 73 to end 3rd QSO AS - JH1CCN - 2021-0519 07:28:30 sent 73 to end 4th QSO NA - CO8LY - 2021-0519 07:29:30 sent 73 to end 5th QSO SA - CE3ALY - 2021-0919 07:31:00 sent 73 to end 6th QSO and complete WAC

'All QSOs were made while running 75 Watts to the 30M trap dipole of an A3WS antenna.'

N4SO reports:

'I often listen to 28 MHz propagation beacons starting with VE3TEN on 28.175 MHz, http://www.oarc.net/photos/ve3ten/ve3ten.html ending at 28.300 MHz. I also have about ten 28 MHz beacons in the log from 0000-0100 UTC.

'From the HF Beacon Reflector and WJ5O for May 20 Evening 'GREYLINE' my location.

'From 00:25-00:30Z, 20 May 2021 I can hear/identify ten 10-meter beacon signals into EM71as.

'28.2025 KA3BWP STAFFORD, VIRGINIA 1074 km 667 miles 28.208 WN2A/AK2F BUDD LAKE , NEW JERSEY 1424 km 885 miles 28.216 K3FX NEPTUNE CITY, NEW JERSEY 1424 km 885 miles 28.2313 N3TVV JIM THORPE, PENNSYLVANIA 1364 km 848 miles 28.2327 N2MH WEST ORANGE, NEW JERSEY 1449 km 869 miles 28.236 W8YT MARTINSBURG, WEST VIRGINIA 1112 km 691 miles 28.246 KG2GL NUTLEY, NEW JERSEY 1144 km 715 miles 28.269 AA1TT CLAREMONT, NEW HAMPSHIRE 1763 km 1095 miles 28.2865 WB0BIN SABIN, MINNESOTA 1900 km 1181 miles 28.296 W3APL LAUREL, MARYLAND 1172 km 733 miles

'73 Bill WJ5O.

'Ken N4SO, EM50 Southern Alabama'

Jeff Hartley, N8II reported on Thursday:

'Hi Tad,

'The sporadic-E season has gotten off to a great start. Just in the past 2 days, there were 3 sporadic-E 28 MHz openings into Europe! On the 18th, I saw a spot for F4DSD in France on 10M SSB. We worked, but just barely; after a struggle to copy my call, he gave me a 3x3 report at 2016 UTC. Hearing nothing else, I QSY'ed down to 15M CW and worked GW3TMP in Wales and EA8TL in Canary Islands. Then I managed to catch Hugh, EI2HI in Ireland and we exchanged 4x2 reports.

'The morning of the 19th featured a fairly widespread but weak opening to EU on 10M.

'My first EU QSO was at 1410 UTC with ON7HJA in Belgium on SSB. Then I heard Gyuri, HA5JI in Hungary who was the loudest of the opening, S7 when we worked, then later near the end at 1433 UTC S5. Also worked F8DGY and Germany on CW. I finally got back to the radio at 2015 UTC and quickly found DK7LX in Germany on 10M CW who was S7. As we finished, Ron SP8ARY was calling me; we moved up and made a QSO; he was my first 10M Polish QSO in my log started January 2017.

'Next I called a CW CQ once and was rewarded with a string of EU callers from Germany, England, Czech Rep., Serbia, France, OZ4VW, first Danish op in my 10M log (new band slot), Netherlands and 2 more Poles including SQ1921PS. many were rather weak.

'I then switched to SSB to find stronger signals as the opening improved. Ady, G6AD in England was S6 and Karel, ON2KP was S8. 3Z1921PS, Poland was a new SSB band slot as was 5P1B, Denmark 6 minutes later. Of course, I found Ian, MM0TFU in Scotland about S7 who always seems to be there when 10M opens to NA. Calling CQ on SSB, I worked a long string of EU stations with few if any CQs needed to log the next station.

'The majority were in western EU, only one weak Italian. Additional SSB countries logged were France, Netherlands, Northern Ireland, Germany, and Austria. I made many QSOs with England. After 2128Z, I searched out stations and found Nick, LZ3ND in Bulgaria who was peaking over S9, no wonder with his 4 stacked 7 element Yagis! Also worked LZ5DD. PI4DX also with stacked 6 element Yagis was S9.

'My last SSB QSO before dinner at 2158 UTC was S52WW, Slovenia for a new band slot. Returning at 2238 UTC, I found Tom, 9A2AJ, Croatia on CW (new slot), OA4DX, Peru on 12M CW for new slot, and Gordon, MM0GPZ who was S7-8 on 10M SSB, S7 on 12M (my antenna only 2 el Yagi), and a solid S9 on 15M. Despite the great conditions on 15M, there was very little SSB or CW activity. My last 10M QSO was EI7HBB, Ireland on SSB at 2318 UTC, a very long opening. I made in total 64 10M QSOs with Europe.

'73, Jeff N8II'

Wow, Jeff!

Russ W4NI reports from Nashville:

'The solar storm on 12 May 2021 was not too bad. Despite K=7 at both 1200 and 1500 UTC, I was able to work DK, EA, LZ, 9A, on 20 CW from Tennessee.'

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for May 13 through 19, 2021 were 24, 24, 24, 11, 11, 24 and 24, with a mean of 20.3. 10.7 cm flux was 74.7, 70.9, 73.3, 73.2, 74.8, 76.4, and 75.9, with a mean of 74.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 4, 8, 5, 6, 10, and 6, with a mean of 6.6. Middle latitude A index was 7, 4, 8, 4, 6, 10, and 5, with a mean of 6.3.


- - - - - - - - - - - - -

Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io

https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather

Spread the word!

- - - - - - - - - - - - -

Links of interest:

+ Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC
+ https://Twitter.com/NW7US
+ https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:

I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.

Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.

You can help!

Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:

https://www.patreon.com/NW7US

The YouTube channel:
https://YouTube.com/NW7US

..


The W1AW Weekly Propagation Report - 2021 May 21 20:44 UTC

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
<Prev in Thread] Current Thread [Next in Thread>
  • [Propagation+Space Weather] The W1AW Weekly Propagation Report - 2021 May 21 20:44 UTC, nw7us <=