[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 May 19 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 May 19 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2824 (N19E58, Cao/beta) exhibited little change and was inactive during the period. Region 2822 (N18W84, Hsx/alpha) remained nearly unchanged. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for C flares, over 19-21 May.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels over 19-21 May.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters returned to near background levels for the first half of the period as influence from the 13 May CME dissipated. At approximately 19/0120 UTC, a weak enhancement was observed in all parameters, likely indicating the subtle arrival of the anticipated 14 May CME. The minor disturbance was reflected by total field increasing from 5 nT to 8 nT, density increasing from 8 ppcm3 to approx. 13 ppcm3, and winds increasing from 355 km/s to 374 km/s. While the enhancement has continued, solar wind parameters remain near background levels.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become further enhanced due to the anticipated onset of a -CH HSS. Parameters are anticipated to remain enhanced over the majority of 20 May before beginning to gradually decline over the course of 21 May.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Unsettled to active conditions, with a chance of isolated G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming periods, are possible on 19 May with the anticipated onset of a -CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled conditions, with an isolated active period, are expected on 20 May as -CH HSS effects continue. Quiet to unsettled periods are expected on 21 May as -CH HSS effects gradually begin to subside.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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