[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Mar 20 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Mar 20 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2810 (N19E20, Hrx/alpha) exhibited slight decay this period and remained quiet.

A CME was observed off the east limb in LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 20/0125 UTC. The source of the CME is ambiguous, however, event analysis continues.

Broad coronal realignment and dimming was observed along a SE-NW channel in the southern hemisphere in SDO/AIA 171 imagery between 20/0300-1030 UTC. No associated CME signature is yet visible in LASCO imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low over 20-22 Mar.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,200 pfu observed at 19/1800 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels on 20 Mar and high levels on 21-22 Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the transition from a nominal regime to CIR effects preceding negative polarity CH HSS influence after around 19/2200 UTC. After 19/2200 UTC, wind speed values steadily increased from initial values near 300 km/s to end-of-period values over 600 km/s. Total field strength increased to a peak of 23 nT and Bz was sustained southward after 20/0445 UTC, with a peak of -19 nT.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced over 20-22 Mar due to CIR effects followed by negative polarity CH HSS influence.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions were observed after 20/0710 UTC, and G2 (Moderate) storm conditions were observed after 20/0800 UTC, due to CIR effects preceding negative polarity CH HSS influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active and G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 20-22 Mar due to CIR effects followed by negative polarity CH HSS influence.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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