[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Mar 17 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Mar 17 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained very low. Region 2808 (N19W25) quietly decayed to plage. Region 2810 (N18E59, Hax/alpha) was inactive as it rotated further into view and although severely foreshortened, appeared magnetically simple.

A partial halo CME from the southern solar hemisphere was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning around 16/1012 UTC. Examination of SDO and SUVI imagery did not identify an Earth-facing source. STEREO A COR2 imagery of this event showed the CME emanated from at or beyond the SE limb, as observed from the spacecrafts orbital position. Analysis of all these factors indicated the CME was likely not Earth-directed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low 17-19 Mar.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 3,680 pfu observed at 16/1725 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 17-18 Mar. Moderate levels are likely 19 Mar in response to CIR/HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment was indicative of a slow regime and HCS proximity. Total IMF strength increased slightly from 2 to 6 nT, while the Bz component underwent only weak deviations. Solar wind speed ranged mainly from 350-400 km/s. The phi angle was negative until just after 16/1800 UTC when it deflected into a positive sector. The phi angle became variable from 16/2330-17/0430 UTC, before settling back into a positive sector.

Forecast: Nominal solar wind conditions are anticipated for 17 Mar. Enhanced solar wind parameters are likely 18 Mar due to a SSBC. Further enhancements and disturbances in the IMF are anticipated 19 Mar with the approach and arrival of a CIR, followed by increasing solar wind speed due to onset of a negative polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 17 Mar under a nominal solar wind regime. Quiet to unsettled levels are anticipated late 18 Mar due to SSBC related effects. Unsettled to active conditions, with a chance for a G1 (Minor) storm, are expected on 19 Mar due to combined CIR and CH HSS onset effects.

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