[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Mar 05 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Mar 05 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 2806 (S32, Lo=198) decayed to plage. Region 2807 (S18E09, Bxo/beta) continued its decaying trend. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels on 05-07 Mar.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 05-07 Mar due to HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to indicate waning influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed decreased from ~500 km/s to near 400 km/s over the period. Total magnetic field strength was at or below 6 nT and no significant periods of southward Bz were observed. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the negative (towards) solar sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, are expected to reflect the onset of influence from a positive polarity CH HSS late on 05 Mar, with enhancements likely to persist through 07 Mar. Earlier observations from the STEREO-A spacecraft suggest peak solar wind speeds of ~550-600 km/s.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled due to CH HSS activity.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for most of 05 Mar. Geomagnetic activity is likely to increase on 06 Mar, up to active - G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels, due to interaction with a positive polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to active conditions are anticipated over 07 Mar as influence from the CH HSS begins to diminish.

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